The Importance of Being Early: Presidential Primary Front-Loading and the Impact of the Proposed Western Regional Primary
Source: PS: Political Science and Politics (American Political Science Association)

Front-loading is the phenomenon of states moving their primary or caucus dates forward in an effort to increase their influence in the nomination process. The authors examine the effect of front-loading on presidential candidates who are visiting and advertising in these states. They also examine the effect a regional primary could have on the amount of recognition a state receives from the candidates.

Using data gathered from the 2000 and 2004 presidential nomination races on both candidate advertising and travel patterns, Ridout and Rottinghaus predict how much attention states participating in a possible western regional primary could receive in 2008. Their analysis suggests that schedulers for such a primary ought to select a date closely following the New Hampshire primary in order attract candidate attention. For example, in Arizona the expected number of visits by presidential candidates falls from 27 to 18 if the state’s primary was held 30 days after New Hampshire’s compared to 10 days afterwards. The study also finds that having a high delegate count is less important than when the primary is scheduled.

The authors conclude that the impact of front-loading is more significant than that of any regional primary. States holding nominations long after the New Hampshire’s were much less likely to receive a candidate visit, and the number of simultaneous nomination events in contiguous states had “no impact on the frequency with which the candidates visited a state.” Notably, while the size of the state mattered for predicting candidate visits (states with more delegates to be won received more visits than states with less delegates) the size of the state did not impact advertising as advertising costs increase in proportion to the size of the audience. When candidates decide where to campaign, “timing trumps all else.”

+ Full Paper (PDF; 103 KB)

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