Space Debris: Assessing Risk and Responsibility (PDF; 487 KB)
Source: Advances in Space Research, forthcoming

We model the orbital debris environment by a set of differential equations with parameter values that capture many of the complexities of existing three-dimensional simulation models. We compute the probability that a spacecraft gets destroyed in a collision during its operational lifetime, and then de?ne the sustainable risk level as the maximum of this probability over all future time.
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Although the political and economic issues are daunting, these damage estimates can be used to help determine one-time legacy fees and fees on future activities (including deorbit noncompliance), which can deter future debris generation, compensate operational spacecraft that are destroyed in future collisions, and partially fund research and development into space debris mitigation technologies. Our results need to be con?rmed with a high-?delity three-dimensional model before they can provide the basis for any major decisions made by the space community.

See: Space Junk, What Goes Up Must Come Down (Stanford Graduate School of Business News)

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