National population projections, 2008-based
Source: Office for National Statistics

The United Kingdom population is projected to increase by more than 4 million to 65.6 million over the 10 year period to 2018. This increase is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.7 per cent between mid-2008 and mid-2018. The UK population is projected to increase from an estimated 61.4 million in 2008 to 71.6 million in 2033 (Table 1). It is projected that the population of the UK will exceed 70 million by mid-2029.

The 2008-based national population projections are based on the estimated population at the middle of 2008 and a set of demographic trend-based assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration (see section 6). The projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. They provide the population levels and age structure that would result if the assumptions made were to be realised. The 2008-based national population projections replace the 2006-based projections published by ONS in October 2007.

The populations of England and Northern Ireland are projected to increase by 7 per cent by 2018, whilst the population of Wales is projected to increase by 5 per cent over the same 10 year period. The projected increase for Scotland is 4 per cent, due to fertility and life expectancy levels for Scotland being assumed to remain lower than in the rest of the UK.

Of the 4.3 million projected increase in the UK population over the next 10 years, some 2.4 million (56 per cent) is a result of projected natural increase (more births than deaths) while the remaining 1.9 million (44 per cent) is the assumed net number of migrants (Table 2). Similarly, of the 10.2 million projected increase in the population by 2033, 5.6 million (55 per cent) is due to projected natural increase and 4.6 million (45 per cent) is due to projected net migration.

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