The Human Cost of the War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002-2006
Source: The Lancet

The number of persons dying in Iraq has continued to escalate with each year. The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006. However, the actual numbers of Iraqis whose deaths are ascribed by household members to the coalition have increased each year. Gunfire remains the most common reason for death, though deaths from car bombings have increased from 2005. Deaths from non-violent causes have increased for 2005 and 2006 suggesting a trend in deaths due to deterioration in health services and the environment health threats, as well as decreasing access to health services. From a statistical standpoint the numbers of deaths due to non-violent causes is too small to reach definitive conclusions.

Our best estimate is the 654,965 persons have died as a consequence of the conflict. Of these, 601,027 have died from violence. While the actual value may be somewhat higher or lower than this number, the precision of these results is adequate to conclude that loss of life in this conflict has been substantial. This is far greater than reported by various media accounts and morgue tallies. This is not surprising, as reporting of events from incomplete sources cannot, in any statistically meaningful way, be converted into national death rates. Other than Bosnia, we are unable to find any major historical instances where passive surveillance methods (such as morgue and media reports) identify more than 20% of the deaths which were found through population-based survey methods.

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