Forecasting the 2006 Elections
Source: PS: Political Science & Politics
+ Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the United States Senate (PDF; 127 KB):

Overall, our model predicts that there is a very slim chance that the Democrats will take control of the Senate: 4.7%. It should be noted that while our forecast predicts that the Democrats have little chance of taking control of the Senate in 2006, it indicates that they will be in good position for both the 2008 and 2010 elections. In 2008, Republicans must defend 21 seats, while Democrats must defend only 12. If Democrats win just under half of these races, and the forecasts of our model are correct, they will have 52 seats after 2008, a slim majority. The 2010 Senate elections see the Republicans defending 19 seats, the Democrats 15.

+ Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives (PDF; 111 KB):

Making use of variables that have long been studied as correlates of success in congressional elections, we predicted that the Democrats would pick up 22 seats in the November 2006 House of Representatives election. If this forecast turns out to have been correct, the election will give the Democrats 224 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives—a 13-seat majority. We also predicted that there was a 94.9% chance that the Democrats will take control of the House.

+ National Coalitions, Strategic Politicians, and U.S. Congressional Elections: Using the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections (PDF; 115 KB):

Both national conditions and the behavior of candidates influence the outcomes of U.S. House elections. President Bush’s low approval ratings and especially the large advantage that Democrats currently enjoy in the generic vote suggest that Democrats have a serious chance to regain control of the House of Representatives in November. However, the size of Democratic gains in the House will depend on how successful Democrats are in recruiting quality challengers to run against potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents as well as on national political conditions. Democratic gains are also likely in the Senate but it will be difficult for Democrats to pick up the six seats that they need to take control of the upper chamber because only 15 of the 33 seats up for election in 2006 are currently held by Republicans.

This entry was posted on Friday, October 20th, 2006 at 10:53 am and is filed under Government and politics, Political process. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.